Grave climate impacts as Ukraine’s LNG imports from the US are set to surge

By Anders Lorenzen

As the war continues to cripple Ukraine’s energy grid, US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is emerging as both a lifeline—and a looming climate concern

We have previously reported how war-torn Ukraine, amid devastating war conditions, has completed the country’s largest wind farm.

War-torn energy infrastructure implications

Data and imagery have shown that much of the country’s energy infrastructure has been wiped out, and the country has increasingly relied on energy imports.

As the Ukrainian leadership does everything it can to keep people warm and the lights on, there are warnings that this comes with serious climate impacts.

Ukraine’s largest wind farm expands amid ongoing war

Ukraine’s growing dependence on LNG

The headlines dominating mainstream news have been about a US-led peace-treaty negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. 

However, it has largely gone unnoticed that Ukraine signed a significant LNG import deal with the US in June last year.

Ukraine’s clean energy strategy gathers pace

Background: Wind vs. gas

In June 2024, DTEK, the biggest energy company in Ukraine, signed a deal with Venture Global that would supply LNG to Ukraine and pipeline facilities in Eastern Europe.

DTEK was also behind the largest wind project in Ukraine, the Tyligulska wind farm, which we previously reported on.

Why LNG? A matter of survival

The biggest energy company in Ukraine was keen to underline that this is more than an energy deal, arguing that it is essential for energy security.

When the deal was signed last year, the CEO of DTEK’s trading arm, D.Trading, Ivan Geliukh, said: 

“At D.TRADING, we believe that this Heads of Agreement marks a significant milestone in our commitment to support Ukraine and the EU in the process of decarbonisation and energy security for Europe. This partnership underscores a strong dedication to ensuring access to sustainable energy today and in the future.”

The 2024 US and Ukraine LNG import deal

In the deal, the country could import significant quantities of US LNG via terminals in EU countries. 

It seeks to boost supply as Russian attacks have damaged much of its domestic infrastructure.

UK: Energy security takes priority over net-zero climate targets

Details of the US-Ukraine LNG import agreement

In December last year, Ukraine received its first shipment of US LNG, 100 million cubic metres, equivalent to 1 terawatt-hour (TWh) of energy, arriving in a Greek port. 

First shipments and future volumes

However, although the amount is significant, it is dwarfed by the amount the country is expected to import this year. 

It is estimated that between April and October 2025, at least 4 billion cubic meters of gas will be imported – this corresponds to 42.2 TWh

Import options

Several options are available for sending the shipments to Ukraine via gas terminals in Germany, Greece, Lithuania, and Poland and via gas pipelines in Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

Energy security essentials

It is believed Ukraine will be looking to import as much US LNG as possible via the European terminals. 

Ukraine have been hit with a significant energy shortage, as a consequence of the war.

The reason is that Russia has been targeting – and hitting – energy infrastructure in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022.

Analysis: Can Germany wean itself off Russian oil and gas?

Increasing gas demand

Russia’s targeted air strikes have become more aggressive and frequent during the winter, when Ukraine needs more gas.

As a result, other sources of energy are necessary to keep heating and lights on.

Climate implications of LNG use

Natural gas advocates have long praised the energy source, labelling it as a transition fuel and a bridge to renewables.  

Campaigner concerns over gas infrastructure

However, campaigners have been less enthusiastic and cautioned against building up a reliance on gas and its gas infrastructure. 

How LNG compares to other fossil fuels

While, in theory, it is the fossil fuel with the lowest emissions, its production method could significantly impact emissions and, in some cases, rival other fossil fuel emissions. 

Calculating Emissions from LNG

LNG emits ~48% more CO₂-eq than pipeline natural gas due to energy-intensive liquefaction, transport, and higher methane leakage.

The 42.2 TWh of LNG imports are estimated to produce 16.7 million metric tons (Mt CO₂-eq) of CO2 emissions.

This is due to the factoring in of production, liquefaction, transport, regasification, and methane leakage. 

In context, 16.7 Mt CO₂-eq is equivalent to 3.6 million petrol cars running for a year, or four large coal plants operating annually, or half of Denmark’s total annual emissions. 

Ukraine LNG imports: An energy and climate crossroad

How the country’s energy choices shape its future and the trade-offs it is forced to make could result in significant climate impacts.

Can Ukraine balance short-term survival with long-term sustainability? The world will be watching.

View the full article